Skip to content

2009 Predictions on Online Video

January 3, 2009

OK. I originally wasn’t going to do this. I agree a lot with Brad Feld’s post when it comes to predictions. But what the heck. Why not throw my hat into the wonderful world of predictions for online video? Here we go:

  • YouTube will remain king. Nobody will come close to threatening their dominance. In fact, with their higher quality HD offering, more and more people will see YouTube as the only way to go
  • 2009 will be the year of clutter. You will have MORE great quality shows, but you will have EVEN MORE junk content on the web, making it harder to find the gems. The net result will be there will be hundreds of high quality work… that nobody watches
  • 99.9% of online video content producers will not make significant money. However, a larger number of online video producers will make money on a whole (i.e., volume-wise, this number will go up, but as a percent of the category, this number will go down)
  • The down economy will kill off a ton of  fledgling video-related start-ups (all relying on ad revenue) and many will consolidate their user base to survive. Some will repurpose their business all together
  • A few standout companies will emerge, as start-ups with strong and sustainable business models get ahead (i.e.., less ad-revenue reliant)
  • Somebody will break through the clutter by doing something incredibly creative but very controversial. It will get written up in blogs, the NY Times, etc. Some will praise it, many will condemn it. This will lead to the topic of censorship of online video and what, if any, responsibility producers have to the public in a less regulated industry
  • For businesses, online video will become an important aspect of their websites. By 2010, this won’t be a differentiator but a necessity
  • Mobile video will continue to grow but won’t grow as quickly as previously expected due to economy
  • This might not be a directly related to online video, but there will be one more period of stock sell-off before we start to see recovery in late 2009
No comments yet

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: